Would The NFL Bring Sunday Ticket In-House? And How Much Could That Harm Linear TV?

According to a report from the Wall Street Journal last Friday, the National Football League sees streaming as a way to maximize the value and popularity of its Sunday Ticket service going forward.

Since 1994, the NFL’s had its out-of-market game subscription package tied to DirecTV, and with that deal expiring after this coming season, there’s a desire to expand the reach of Sunday Ticket — while also getting ahead of the cord-cutting trend (something the league itself has shared).

Doing so means that Sunday Ticket is likely headed to streaming, with Amazon, Apple and Disney being the most likely suitors for the rights, which could pay the NFL upwards of $2.5 billion per year depending on who wins. But with Disney indicating (via sources familiar with the negotiations) that it would pay something closer to between $1 billion and $1.5 billion per year, and Amazon and Apple having no obvious need to fork over billions for the rights, the WSJ piece also floats this interesting idea:

If the NFL doesn’t get an enticing offer, it could choose to put the Sunday games on NFL+, the direct-to-consumer streaming service it is launching this season.

This option may sound like settling at first glance, but in actuality, it’s potentially a nuclear option for the NFL to use against networks, streaming services, MVPDs and vMVPDs alike.

If the NFL is serious about not requiring audiences to have a cable or satellite package to get Sunday Ticket access, then housing the service on NFL+ is a reason for many viewers to not only cut the cord, but for even streaming audiences to rethink which live TV service they currently pay a monthly fee too.

While it’s hard to find exact numbers on how many U.S. households’ only form of live TV viewing is NFL games, consider that 75 of the 100 most-watched programs of 2021 were NFL games. There’s a good chance that if you told many Americans “just pay between $300 and $400 per year (or $25-$35/month) for NFL games and related programming instead of live TV,” they’d happily do so.

Of course, that assumes a lot around local TV blackouts too.

Currently, Sunday Ticket includes out-of-market games, but blacks out local and doesn’t have national primetime games (Thursdays, Sundays, Mondays). If the league doesn’t want audiences to feel compelled to have a cable or satellite subscription to watch, then there’s a chance it’s pursuing an end to local blackouts for the next Sunday Ticket contract too, no?

The idea is not new, as fans have been clamoring for this for years, and Apple just rolled out a blackout-free MLS rights deal earlier this month. But while the MLS is a growing league and TV property, the NFL is the biggest game in town. Whichever streaming service locks down Sunday Ticket in something resembling its current form would be in a great position compared to competitors. Without local blackouts, said service would be the go-to service for cord-cutters and/or viewers looking to pare down the number of streaming subscriptions they have.

If NFL+ is the next app without blackouts, it’s a shot across the bow to every other player involved with TV. The league becomes a much larger programming player, an instant streaming competitor and deals a significant blow to consumers’ desire to subscribe to pay TV at all. A 2020 survey showed that 33% of cable subscribers would cancel if the NFL season was postponed that year. Well, what if you told those same people that they could pay far less to just watch all NFL games on a streaming service that also houses team-specific shoulder content year-round?

If that’s not a serious enough concern, what do all of the networks that just forked over $105 billion for 11 years of games do when the league itself is actively spurring the sort of cord-cutting behavior that will pull viewers away from those same games?

The NFL is the main thing keeping pay TV alive, after all.

And perhaps the potential of legal action from those networks convinces the NFL that a streaming Sunday Ticket needs to keep local blackouts intact.

Either way, there’s a lot hanging in the balance with these Sunday Ticket rights — probably more than broadcast partners want to discuss. For as much as the deal has been an afterthought to the larger NFL rights, Sunday Ticket could actually do more to dictate the future of the league, and TV overall.