NFL’s 18-Game Goals Could Power Impressive TV Expansion
The NFL still wants an 18-game regular season schedule, as ProFootballTalk’s Mike Florio reported last week. And as he notes, those inside NFL circles believe it’s going to happen when the next labor deal rolls around at the end of the decade.
Setting aside the valid concerns around player safety by extending the season, AND the fact that an 18th game (and an extra bye week) would push the Super Bowl into late February, the NFL is clearly setting its up for yet another impressive round of TV expansion.
The league has pulled it off so many times at this point, of course, that observers may be numb to it. But in the span of about 55 years, the NFL went from Sunday afternoons to adding:
Monday Night Football, periodic Saturday games (1970)
Sunday Night Football (1987)
Thursday Night Football (2006)
Friday games (Black Friday in 2023, kickoff game in Brazil in 2024)
In that time, the league also merged with the rival AFL, added six expansion franchises, tacked on an increasing number of international games, and grew the regular season from 14 to 16 to 17 games. It’s also closed in on $25 billion in annual revenue thanks in part to historically lucrative TV deals, along with its own cable network and streaming service NFL+. So any further growth is going to be with TV in mind, and I’d argue, at the center of it all.
As the NFL’s done before, the next round of TV deals will bring with it another opportunity to further segment its schedule into pricier game packages spread across more broadcast, cable and streaming partners. And 18 games is a perfect launching point to create new carve-outs.
Perhaps an 18th game allows for a protected “interconference rivalry” week to rehash previous Super Bowl beefs, or create customized marketable matchups based on recent player movement. With some branding on it, the NFL makes it a mid-season event, and then sells those rights to an existing or new partner — or even increases the value of NFL+ by just making it an exclusive week for that service alone.
This January’s Peacock playoff game proved the league isn’t afraid of going pay-per-view for some premier contests. What would stop them from dedicating an entire week of action to a paywalled service… that they also happen to own?
There’s also the chance that an 18th game, and a second bye week to go with it, is the impetus for commissioner Roger Goodell to do what he’s wanted to for years: Expand to Europe.
Even nearly two decades after the demise of NFL Europe, the league’s aggressive international growth strategy still appears to chase the promise of putting franchises across the pond. Among the many logistical hurdles that have stood in the way of European teams (or a European division) include how grueling travel would be, especially for teams in the Pacific Time Zone.
An extra bye week doesn’t alleviate ALL of those concerns. Yet, building in some additional time for rest could make it slightly more palatable to the NFL Players Association. And with the U.S. market largely saturated when it comes to NFL allegiances at this point, going outside the country is the most sensible route to successful expansion.
A European expansion also means even more international revenues, the ability to charge higher amounts for non-U.S. TV rights, and a larger collection of potential bidders. Even without a “European Division” per se, having every team travel abroad while utilizing the benefits of the extra bye allows for the NFL to subdivide its TV package again to place the International Series games outside the normal schedule — something they’re basically doing already.
Amazon Prime Video already has Thursday nights, and added Black Friday. Why not the International Series as well? Or maybe that’s up Netflix’s alley as it’s dipped its toes into the water around sports? As mentioned with the rivalry week idea, you could also just make those games an NFL+ feature, and the league reaps the rewards via mandated annual subscriptions to watch (which many fans would fork over money to do).
While it’s a shot in the dark right now to guess dollar amounts or the actual partners for a post-2030 NFL TV environment, we are already seeing the league put its ducks in a row to make yet another big move with its game rights when negotiation time comes. As discussed previously, the league refuses to be commoditized, and one reason why is so that it can keep carving out portions of its schedule to print money from TV deals. They’ll find a limit to how many times they can do so at some point. It just hasn’t happened yet.
