Hulu’s Future Could Get Much Brighter If Comcast Stays Involved

Conventional wisdom since 2019 has been that Disney would purchase Comcast’s remaining 33% stake in Hulu come 2024, in accordance with the value of the streaming service at that time (but no less than $27.5 billion).

That fact has hovered over the service and Disney’s strategy toward it for two years now, and the results have been mixed. While Disney continues to build out its streaming footprint both in the U.S. and abroad, Hulu’s involvement has been minimal. Ad revenues keep growing, mind you. But it’s clear that Hulu’s been sidelined in favor of Disney+ growth and a Hotstar-focused international strategy. Hulu’s main draw of late has been limited to NHL games this season and FX on Hulu (the former posing more questions for the Disney bundle and the latter creating its own issues with the FX app).

But now, all of that may be changing.

During Comcast’s earnings call this week, the media conglomerate hinted at holding onto its stake in Hulu after all. Part of that’s potentially fueled by the fact that Peacock’s down over $500 million despite subscriber growth. The rest is potentially due to Hulu’s aforementioned ad revenue growth, and the connected TV market’s bright future that will ultimately benefit ad-supported services most of all. For Comcast, why divest yourself of an asset that’s only set to be MORE profitable in the coming years? It’s also advantageous to have numerous sources of streaming revenue (as is the case for Disney and will be for Warner Bros. Discovery).

If it ends up confirmed that Comcast holds onto Hulu, it also frees the service up from the artificial shackles placed on it by Disney as it looked to avoid increasing its value too much before the sale. That’s part of why Disney+ was combined with Hotstar in international markets instead of the more sensible Hulu. And why the “FX on Hulu” label lacks clear-cut rules to-date.

Instead, on-demand Hulu could be positioned (as it once was, and may still be) as the best linear TV alternative of the streaming choices out there. The service already features a ton of praise-worthy original shows (though The Handmaid’s Tale and Little Fires Everywhere feel like they debuted a lifetime ago at this point), and even an Oscar-winning film in last year’s Nomadland. Having clear content channels within Hulu for new movies, archive films, original shows and VOD makes it easier to navigate, while also being easier to sell ads against.

In this reality, Hulu could even become the Disney/Comcast joint venture’s answer to HBO and HBO Max. “FX on Hulu” eventually just becomes what Hulu is as a value proposition and maybe the FX part of that — on both linear and streaming — winds up falling by the wayside. Hulu can be seen as the “adult” home for Disney, in particular, and the answer for those looking for less IP-driven new films and shows. Perhaps that hurts Comcast’s aspirations for Peacock. But if they still have skin in the game on the top service, they’re potentially alright with it.

On the vMVPD side, having the above sorted out only increases the value of Hulu + Live TV, and allows Disney and Comcast to charge more for ads as well as subscription fees. While Hulu’s VOD option is already in a favorable spot compared to many of its counterparts, Hulu-as-an-MVPD would be the undisputed clubhouse leader for those looking for an experience like traditional TV, with all of the perks of a premium streaming service. YouTube TV is still out there as a competitor, of course, as are DirecTV Stream and Sling (among others). But they don’t have the same VOD inventory — which is a major differentiator for Hulu already, and would become a bigger one with greater, concerted efforts on that front.

For international growth, there’s an argument to be made that packaging Hulu and Hotstar presents a better proposition as well. Disney, while an enormous and wide-ranging company, still has its name most associated with children’s entertainment. Seeing it can potentially create false assumptions for potential subscribers that prevent adoption, even when attached to Hotstar. Hulu, on the other hand, would create an image of it being an adult-focused service (that could still house the same Disney IP along with it).

As concern grows around Disney hitting a plateau around streaming subscriber growth (especially for Disney+ with no ad sales), the clearest paths forward are international expansion and increasing revenues through Hulu. Disney’s actively avoided the latter for some time now, and you could even argue it’s how they lost President Kelly Campbell to Peacock. But there’s still time to fix that, without much fundamental change in the business.

Comcast is potentially giving Disney a liferaft to fix its issues with Hulu. It’ll be interesting to see if they take it as they enter the next phase of the company’s transition to streaming as its eventual bread-and-butter. We’ve all known they can’t do that without Hulu playing a major part. Perhaps now they’re finally seeing that for themselves.