Is the Magic Fading? Disney’s Originals Go Bippity-Boppity-Splat
The streaming landscape, much like an environmental system, requires a delicate balance among resources, consumption, competition, and diversity. Disruptions in any one area can destabilize the entire ecosystem. Recent performance trends in live-action Star Wars series highlight a potentially troubling shift within this balance.
According to Parrot Analytics, recent Star Wars originals, such as The Acolyte and Ahsoka, have not matched the consistent highs achieved by Disney+ flagship series The Mandalorian. More importantly, these newer entries have exhibited significant decay rates in audience demand. The Acolyte, with its substantial $180 million budget, proved polarizing and failed to attract sufficient viewership, leading to its swift cancellation. Ahsoka similarly received a tepid response and experienced a steep decline in audience demand in the post-season window. While limited series like Obi-Wan Kenobi and The Book of Boba Fett tend to have shorter shelf lives as standalone offerings, recent Marvel series have also mirrored these trends, showing decreased overall demand and rapid drop-offs in post-season engagement. Percy Jackson and the Olympians stands out as one of the few non-Marvel/Star Wars live-action hits for Disney+.
This situation underscores a potential issue for Disney+: the challenge of new content consistently breaking through. Of the platform’s 20 most in-demand TV series in the US so far this year, only five are first-season shows, including the canceled The Acolyte. While returning hits undoubtedly hold more value for a platform over the long-term, fresh breakout originals are crucial for maintaining sustained upfront engagement and driving subscriber growth. Although integrating Hulu with Disney+ has bolstered retention, Disney is aiming for more significant gains in new customer additions.
Among the top 20 most in-demand one-season shows available on Disney+, eight are one-off limited series, five have been canceled or are unlikely to return, two are older library shows, and four have been renewed or are expected to return. This record isn’t disastrous but falls short of being a resounding success. Combined with Hulu’s uneven track record with original — despite recent successes like Shogun and The Bear — the challenge of sustaining fresh interest becomes evident. Notably, 16 of the platform’s top 25 most in-demand shows this year did not originate on Disney+.
As Parrot Analytics has previously highlighted, major premium SVOD platforms often derive most of their demand from broadcast and cable programming. Disney+ and Hulu are no exceptions. But with rising production costs, declining linear TV ratings, and shrinking linear ad revenue, the traditional pay-TV model can no longer sustain long-running popular series indefinitely. This will have serious ripple effects on streaming platforms longer-term, creating greater pressure to deliver a steady stream of high-demand originals, emphasizing the need for a strong hit rate with new exclusive content.
Given the waning interest in Star Wars and Marvel, the dominance of multi-season shows among top-tier content, and the struggle of newer originals to consistently break through, the future poses significant questions for streaming platforms like Disney+. How they navigate these challenges will be crucial in shaping their ongoing success in a competitive and evolving market.
