From Hype To Tickets: How Films Convert Awareness Into Action
Trying to dissect the anatomy of a box office hit can sometimes feel like trying to decode the Matrix. There’s enough data, inputs and variables to overwhelm even the mind of the Oracle. But just as The Matrix carried over constants from one version to the next, there are consistent trends among theatrical blockbusters that studios can use to forecast and measure performance.
Let’s use the box office receipts of three recent tentpole successes as examples:
Inside Out 2: $154.2 million opening; $652.9 million domestic total (4.2x domestic multiplier)
Deadpool & Wolverine: $211.4 million opening; $636.7 million domestic total (3.0x domestic multiplier)
Wicked: $112.5 million opening; $473.2 million domestic total (4.2x domestic multiplier)
Each film posted impressive scores across audience Awareness, Interest, Theatrical Intent (those planning to see the movie in theaters), and Willingness to Pay (those planning to purchase either a theatrical ticket or make a video-on-demand transaction) in the week of their respective releases, according to Greenlight Analytics’ film tracking service The Quorum. These strong scores suggested strong box office performances, which obviously came to pass. While these metrics are incredibly useful for forecasting, we can go one layer deeper to better understand performance.
We can see how efficiently each title converted awareness into theatrical intent by dividing the latter by the former to create an Intent Conversion score. All three posted impressive marks in this new metric: Deadpool & Wolverine (.89%), Inside Out 2 (.85%), Wicked (.7%). Similarly, we can see how efficiently each title turned interest into willingness to pay in order to score each movie’s Monetization Potential. Once again, we see strong scores across the board: Inside Out 2 (1.17%), Deadpool & Wolverine (1.13%), Wicked (.92%). (Generally speaking, the lower the budget, the closer to a 1:1 correlation - or better - you should be aiming for).
Inside Out 2 notched the highest Monetization Potential score, with willingness to pay exceeding interest. This suggested strong emotional intent among those who sought out the film in theaters and at home. Deadpool & Wolverine was the most efficient overall, with high conversion in both metrics. Wicked’s long tail of demand is backed up by the hefty $100 million it pulled in via premium video on demand (PVOD) sales.
Intent Conversion and Monetization Potential can help Hollywood better understand the blockbuster audience funnel between awareness and action and the efficiency of marketing/promotional campaigns. Honing in on these new frameworks of success will better position studios to crack the code on hit moneymakers.
