A re-setting of expectations is needed now that the Peak TV bubble has popped and the volume of new shows industry wide is declining. But even with a dose of much-needed new normal reality, the stabilization looks to benefit market-leading Netflix most of all. 

Streaming subscriber growth correlates strongly with demand for original on-platform content. Folks sign up for Stranger Things, The Boys and The Mandalorian because they are broad appeal blockbuster tentpole series. However, the growth rate of global streaming originals is now down for the sixth time in seven quarters, according to Parrot Analytics. In fact, Q2 (3.9%) and Q3 (3.5%) of 2024 have produced consecutive record low growth rates for global streaming original content. Streamers are still making new shows, just not at the same clip as they used to. 

This comes a full year after the Hollywood strikes, as companies across the board cut back on and take fewer risks with original programming. And with the ever-present need to generate revenue, legacy media companies continue to license programming to Netflix, lessening the company’s need to continually invest in expensive originals. 

Still, even with the downturn, Netflix remains the dominant platform when it comes to exclusive originals. In Q3 2024, 21.2% of all new streaming originals released were Netflix Originals — well ahead of 14.0% one year ago. The next closest competitor in global supply share for original series is Amazon Prime Video at 13.1%, followed by Disney+ at 9.6%. In other words, Netflix has a significantly larger library of fresh originals. 

How big of a lead Netflix has enjoyed in streaming original share has fluctuated over the years. In Q3 2021, Netflix accounted for a whopping 30.2% of all new streaming original titles released globally. But in Q3 2023, that number was down to 14.7%. 

Having said that, Netflix was better prepared for the production shutdowns brought on by the dual Hollywood labor strikes than anyone else. Since Q4 2023, it has accounted for more than 20% of all new streaming original releases in three of the past four quarters. This coincided with Netflix’s first increase in originals demand share since before 2020. 

The backlog of content the streamer had amassed allowed it to continue delivering fresh programming at a time when many of its rivals were at a standstill. This was clearly the result of Netflix having a deep roster of new content in the can — something co-CEO Ted Sarandos emphasized repeatedly in 2023 — and a more global footprint than its competitors. All the while, Netflix reaped the benefits of a re-opened licensing market after years of in-house consolidation. The company was able to feed on both its own programming and that of its rivals. As a result, it has been insulated from the fluctuations of volume supply and the volatile nature of the entertainment ecosystem. 

Looking ahead, Netflix leadership noted on its recent earnings call that its production pipeline is finally normalizing following major disruptions in recent years. While this won’t return the company to its Peak TV volume, it does pose a potentially insurmountable engagement advantage compared to the rest of the premium streaming industry. What’s left for the competition to do?